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Cav has already won two races this year, but the team's still working on his lead-out train. (Team Sky)
Not weather, but futures.
By Joe Lindsey
Right now we’re all watching the early-season races and wondering what they can tell us about the big hitters to come—Milan-San Remo to start, which is exactly one month from today.
With his win today in the Tour of Oman’s third stage, Lotto-Belisol sprinter Andre Greipel already has five victories in 2012 and it’s not even March. Last year he had eight wins total, including that great Tour de France stage where he outkicked Mark Cavendish head-to-head (jump to 9:10 for last km).
A reporter asked Greipel at the finish in Oman whether his form made him a favorite for M-SR even as other possible contenders like Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Barracuda) and Sky’s Cavendish were dropped and finished several groups back.
“It’s in March,” he pointed out. “Of course I want to try to be good but there is one month to go.”
He’s right. Similarly, Cavendish, who was frustrated in his bid for a sprint win in the third stage yesterday, didn’t speak to reporters after that stage. His teammate Chris Sutton told Cyclingnews that the team was still working out lead-outs for the star sprinter.
So what do we know here? Not much. Greipel is obviously going great right now. And it’s also nice to see Tom Boonen (Omega Pharma–Quick-Step) winning sprints again. That bodes well for the Classics season.
But Greipel was supposed to break through after his Tour stage win last year and instead got just two more wins in 2011, at the comparatively modest Tour of BeNeLux. He looks good now but these are early days.
And let’s not forget that Boonen was solid in the early part of 2011, but outside of a win at Gent-Wevelgem his classics campaign didn’t yield the kind of results he aspired to (and the rest of the season he was largely a non-factor).
Lots can change.
With Cavendish, people seem to have learned not to count the boy out as he has a habit of bouncing back pretty strong even when he doesn’t look great. As much as he’s familiar with the Sky team from his work with them last year at the World Championships, a lead-out train is perhaps the most finely tuned thing in bike racing.
It takes time and practice, and for Cav and Sky, that’s what the Tours of Oman and Qatar are (and let’s not forget that he already has two wins; no rainbow curse yet).
At Milan-San Remo, I fully expect Cav and Sky to be in the mix to the end. Sky showed at the Volta Algarve today that they’re ready to assume their role as one of the best teams in cycling; Richie Porte and Brad Wiggins absolutely demolished the field on the queen stage. That kind of confidence and execution speak well for Cav’s spring.
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